User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/03/24

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Entry title

  • Pretesting second participant.


  • Things seem to be generally going in the right direction, but I have concerns about the validity of the P(Theory) judgments. Two 100s is a serious problem.

Unexpected Observations

  • This person gave 100% for both P(theory) judgments. I don't know how to explain this.

New Hypotheses

  • Insert content here...

Current Protocol

  • Insert content here...

Current Materials

  • Insert content here...

New Data

Participant 2

  • Original theory (stable prices due to excess supply) was retained with an exception note (better coal producing technology). Consistent with the default/exception approach of HHNT and Khemlani group.


  • Person gave 100% confidence both times, a serious problem. Why would the person do this?
  • Person gave slowly increasing coal prices, but said they are steady. Again, this seems like an inflation argument.
  • Person did not make predictions.
  • Wordiness, especially "perception of energy prices"
  • Didn't understand inflation note.
  • Delete for 6 different years.
  • The similarity of explanation one to the original data was also not valid. The theory said no change, but the person said this was similar to the downward price trend.


  • Removed "perception of energy prices" from introduction.
  • Deleted "for 6 different years"
  • Fix inflation note to: "the prices have already been adjusted for inflation" from "these are real coal prices, meaning the prices have been adjusted for inflation"