Entry title
- Person failed to account for the uptick in prices.
- Person judged that the prices would go down, but not nearly enough.
Unexpected Observations
New Hypotheses
Current Protocol
Current Materials
New Data
Participant 3
- Predicted prices would go down, but not enough.
- Based theory on switch to alternative fuels due to pollution and government regulation.
- New explanation used old one with an additional statement (warmer weather leading to lower demand).
- Made constant confidence estimates for forecasts.
- Made forecasts with similar pattern to prior data.
Faults
- Confused by the similarity judgments; this needs to be rephrased.
- I think the P(Theory) question is not specific enough. People seem to think it is asking "how likely is it that your explanation describes a relevant causal factor" rather than "your explanation describes all the relevant causal factors"
Corrections
- Changed similarity question to: "How similar are the actual prices of coal between 1980 and 2010 to what you would predict based on Explanation Two?"
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