User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/03/23

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Entry title

  • First pre-test participant.


  • The data look really good, just as we expected. Inflation seems like it is going to trip people up, and getting explanations with any depth is going to be a challenge.

Unexpected Observations

  • Insert content here...

New Hypotheses

  • Insert content here...

Current Protocol

  • Insert content here...

Current Materials

  • Error, forgot to record the materials.

New Data

Participant 1

  • Predicted prices to go up from 51 to 74, consistent with our expectations.
  • First estimate took 100 seconds, total estimates 200 seconds. It seems as though once the theory was in mind the estimates were easier to generate. 100 seconds seems like a fair amount of deliberation.
  • Explanation with outcome knowledge matched the pattern of observed results exactly (check mark). Confidence increased.

Participant 2

  • Insert content here...


  • Be specific for explaining the prices. (e.g., "Please write 2-3 sentences" or "Write at least 20 words")
  • Predictions were increasing, but based on the argument of inflation. This is a serious problem and needs to be corrected.
  • Spent only 16 seconds on the explanation.


  • Added title to demographics page.
  • Highlighted MTurk code.
  • Added request for "as much detail as possible" for the explanations.
  • Added a star on the inflation note to emphasize it.
  • Changed pay to $2.50 as it took less than 15 minutes.
  • Removed "I don't know" option for judgment of trend.
  • Add second attention check to the coal price forecast page.
  • Added third check for the initial price estimates to highlight that inflation cannot be a factor.