User:R. Eric Collins/MBL/Clocks

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Marc Suchard

Molecular Clocks

P(t1,t2)* g(t1) P(t1,t2) is well-formed Yule process g(t1) is a prior distribution of divegence time for calibration

P(t1,t2) = P(t1|t2)*P(t2) = P(t2|t1)*P(t1) decompose joint to conditional times a marginal well-formed distribution * 'potentially garbage' prior

not everything has gone to fixation when sampling modern organisms, whereas long ancestral branches include only fixed mutations