User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/04/02

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Entry title

  • Pretest 6, 7, 8


Total results including pretests 1-7 and pilot test 1:

  • Coal Price Predictions (~78% up):
    • Up predictions: 18
    • Down predictions: 3
    • No Change (NC): 2
  • Incorrect Inflation Answers: 5/23 (~25%)
  • Bad Explanations: 12/23 (~50%)
    • Mentions inflation: 4
    • Just says supply and demand: 8
  • Increased confidence after UP/NC predictions: 11/19
  • Perfect confidence in explanation: 2/20

Unexpected Observations

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New Hypotheses

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Current Protocol

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Current Materials

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New Data

Participant 1

  • Favorable to big text.
  • Wanted information on desirable story length.
  • Suggested changing story to explanation.
  • Wanted it to be called "your story"
  • Wanted warning on how important/needed estimates would be.
  • Wanted uneditable boxes.
  • Wanted real coal prices on top of page rather than bottom.
  • Misunderstanding with prediction check.

Participant 2

  • Suggested more difficult quality checking questions. Question One is definitely too easy.
  • Suggested the second similarity question is unnecessary.

Participant 3

  • Removed voice recording mention from risks.
  • Changed "sometimes intuition is right" to "use your intuitiona nd best judgment"
  • Suggested changing the 2005 U.S. dollars for inflation, but I disagree.
  • Added "You will be asked questions about your story later and it will be referred to as 'Your Story One'."


  • Question checks too easy.
  • Boxes should be uneditable.


  • Changed it to "your story"
  • Provided information about story length.
  • Made attention checks on a separate page. Made the last one more difficult.