Nida Patel Journal Week 2

Nida Patel

Purpose

• The purpose of this lab exercise is to interact with models and observe the variety of ways in which they are incorporated and utilized in all branches of science and academia. The exercise specifically aims to use models to explain the way diseases spread within a population based on different parameters.

Methods/results

1. I watched The role of applied math in real-time pandemic response: How basic disease models work and came up with two questions:
   • What are the benefits of flattening the curve if the amount of affected individuals remains the same?
   • In order to make this model's information on viruses more available to the public, what is a way to simplify it for a more general audience?
2. In order to understand the interactive SIR model I first read the information on this website and answered the following questions:
   • 1. What happens if initial I = 0?
        • If the initial Infected = 0 then the disease would be unable to spread within the population since there were no infected individuals to start its spread.
     2. What does it mean that red line increases so rapidly?
        • The red line indicates the Infected inviduals, an increase in the red line indicates that the virus is contagious. The red line at a dramatic incline indicates it is spreading quickly within the population.
     3. What does it mean that green line also rises rapidly, but not as rapidly?
        • The green line is the rate of recovery. A rapid rise in its slope indicates that the rate of recovery is quick, but not faster than the rate of infection.
     4. What does it mean that the green line reaches nearly to 1,000?
        • Out of a population of 1000 individuals, the green line indicates that of the 1000 infected individuals nearly all of them recovered, but the remaining individuals died.
3. I chose to work with the Deterministic Heterogeneous Comp SIR model on Epidemix
4. I specifically chose this model because it operates on the basis of a closed population, in order to build a solid understanding of SIR models, I wanted to work with an ideal model where movement between groups only operates in one direction.