User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/03/31: Difference between revisions
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* People give confidence estimates for backcasts from 2015-2040. | * People give confidence estimates for backcasts from 2015-2040. | ||
* Failure rate on inflation check was 2/11. | * Failure rate on inflation check was 2/11. | ||
* Average 120 seconds making their estimates (way too low for real thought). | |||
* At least 3/11 explanations were inadequate (average 90 seconds to construct). | |||
* Initial confidence was too high (average 73). 2/11 had perfect confidence initially, an additional one had over 90. | |||
* 2/11 invalidly tried to backcast on te prediction task, then failed to complete the predictions | |||
==Corrections== | ==Corrections== | ||
* | * !!Need to fix P(Theory) questions to reduce extremes. | ||
**Added "Accurately captures the Causes" | |||
* !!Need to do something about inflation confusions. | |||
* Improved open-ended data by asking them to make a story. "Please write a story that explains what you think caused the average prices of coal in the U.S. between 1980 and 2010 in the text box below. The story should have complete thoughts and grammatical sentences, so that another person could read the story and understand what you mean." | |||
* Separated the backcasts and predictions for the 2015-2040 predictions. | |||
* Added: "in real 2005 dollars per ton" | |||
* Added: "captures ALL causes" for P(Theory) | |||
Revision as of 12:04, 1 April 2013
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Entry title
Comments
Unexpected Observations
New Hypotheses
Current Protocol
Current Materials
New DataParticipant 1
Participant 2
Faults
Corrections
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