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Risk from Salmonella in almonds
Debugging. Slight change of plans on how to look at outcomes. Danyluk 2006 used the geometric mean of #cases/yr. It makes sense since the distribution of both Prob(ill) and #cases/yr is highly skewed. Note that zeros are seen as errors when taking the Log and eliminated from the vector, so the distribution of LogCases/yr has less data points than #cases/yr. This doesn't change the result.
Outbreak scenario: we expect a result of ~ 1500-2000 cases (93 reported cases * (100/20), assuming a reporting rate of 20%. Test:
Note: MPN distribution fitted as cumulative.