User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/04/03

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Entry title

  • Pilot test two. 11 additional participants

Comments

  • 11/11 expected the price to go up.
  • 1/11 was non-monotonic (dipped in one time period).
  • 1/11 incorrectly thought inflation should affect answers.
  • Stories were better.
  • 1/11 started with 100% confidence in theory.
  • 2/11 gave initial similarity judgments that were not correct.
  • 1/11 stuck with the same theory (no change in prices). This person was less confident the second time around.
  • 6/9 who changed their theories increased confidence. 2/9 had no change. Only 1/9 who changed theories decreased confidence.
  • 2/11 thought the predictions were from 2020-2040.
  • The correlation between changes in similarity of the theories to data and changes in confidence was low (tau=.20)
  • The correlation between final confidence and confidence in predictions was also low (tau=.20).


Unexpected Observations

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New Hypotheses

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Current Protocol

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Current Materials

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New Data

Participant 1

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Participant 2

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Faults

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  • Add to error repertiore...

Corrections

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