User:Alexander L. Davis/Notebook/Backdating/2013/03/31

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Entry title

  • Pilot test


  • The open-ended data are pretty unruly. They are also too short.
  • Everyone has predicted the price would go up so far.
  • Initial confidence in theory is often very high, making it hard to go higher.

Unexpected Observations

  • Insert content here...

New Hypotheses

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Current Protocol

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Current Materials

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New Data

Participant 1

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Participant 2

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  • Many people fail to give predictions for 2015-2040.
  • People do not seem to be fully understanding the similarity question and P(Theory) questions.
  • Persistent inability to disregard inflation.
  • Explanation two as a restatement of the prices.
  • Initial confidence is too high.
  • People give confidence estimates for backcasts from 2015-2040.
  • Failure rate on inflation check was 2/11.
  • Average 120 seconds making their estimates (way too low for real thought).
  • At least 3/11 explanations were inadequate (average 90 seconds to construct).
  • Initial confidence was too high (average 73). 2/11 had perfect confidence initially, an additional one had over 90.
  • 2/11 invalidly tried to backcast on te prediction task, then failed to complete the predictions


  •  !!Need to fix P(Theory) questions to reduce extremes.
    • Added "Accurately captures the Causes"
  •  !!Need to do something about inflation confusions.
  • Improved open-ended data by asking them to make a story. "Please write a story that explains what you think caused the average prices of coal in the U.S. between 1980 and 2010 in the text box below. The story should have complete thoughts and grammatical sentences, so that another person could read the story and understand what you mean."
  • Separated the backcasts and predictions for the 2015-2040 predictions.
  • Added: "in real 2005 dollars per ton"
  • Added: "captures ALL causes" for P(Theory)