Alan Meeting
Updates
 Likelihood calculation for beetle model.
 Proposed model and calculations Linear parameter change for warning signal model. Results in a few test cases.
 Likelihood methods within SDE framework, an outline of methods. Subtle problems, good approximations, powerful approaches.
Questions
 LPA vs ELLPA model
 Defining state space in individualbased model vs stage based model, setting initial conditions? Conclusion: Means nonMarkovian system, so likelihood isn't determined in one step approach. More lit review, see: Ellner [1], Perry, [2, 3, 4]
 Calculating likelihood while accounting for nonindependence of the occupancy of each stage? Focus on one class? Conclusions: Choose Larvae.
Parameter fitting
On likelihood based model selection vs model based estimates of process:
 Some cases maximum likelihood estimate agrees with statistical definition  variance definition is mle of sigma parameter for indep gaussian random numbers, the arithmetic mean is the mle for lambda in the poisson, etc. Doesn't necessarily hold true in these timeseries analyses, at least for numerical fitting. Would be better to estimate theta from the mean and search for other parameters.
 requires more precise parameterization
References
Error fetching PMID 16673349: Error fetching PMID 19886497: Error fetching PMID 19739392: Error fetching PMID 19425421:  Error fetching PMID 16673349: [Ellner]
 Error fetching PMID 19886497: [Perry]
 Error fetching PMID 19739392: [Perry2]
 Error fetching PMID 19425421: [Perry3]
All Medline abstracts: PubMed HubMed
Research: Themes for Weds/Thurs workshop with Bob and Brett
Why is this all important?
 Importance of space
 Importance of environmental variation
 Importance of intrinsic variation < us
A recipe for trouble
 Age or stage structure
 Density dependence
 demographic stochasticity
Reading / Misc
Open Access
 Answering a question for a colleague about whether posting on arxiv was consistent with Elsevier's policies. (It is). Many Eslevier journals including TPB provide a watermarked authors copy of postpublication pdf explicitly for posting on the author's website and sharing with colleagues.
 Fun stats: 90% of journals allow archiving preprints, many major funders (NIH, Wellcome) and require open archives, and the FRPAA bill now before congress would require it for almost all public funding. Very few publishers maintain the Ingelfinger rule of refusing to publish things that are archived before publication. Open archives are now the norm.
Open Education
 This is how we dream a fantastic piece on the changing media of writing. part 2. From Richard Miller, at Rutgers.
 AcademiX an exciting conference on the open future of learning.
