User:Carl Boettiger/Notebook/Stochastic Population Dynamics/2010/04/06

{| width="800"
 * style="background-color: #EEE"|[[Image:owwnotebook_icon.png|128px]] Stochastic Population Dynamics
 * style="background-color: #F2F2F2" align="center"|  |Main project page
 * style="background-color: #F2F2F2" align="center"|  |Main project page


 * colspan="2"|
 * colspan="2"|

Towards a meaningful warning signal metric

 * Most papers do not give a statistical approach, but merely argue for the existence of a trend.
 * Kendall's tau approach proved very unreliable. While the preliminary de-trending approach is unjustified in that the simulated data is known to be absent from trends, as a kind of windowed averaging it may sense as a way to detect changes.
 * Should distinguish between the gradual slow changes and change-point estimation. Perhaps change-point provides a more rigorous starting point.
 * need to predict the expected variance in the various warning signals, this entry


 * }