User:Carl Boettiger/Notebook/Stochastic Population Dynamics/2010/02/10

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 * style="background-color: #EEE"|[[Image:owwnotebook_icon.png|128px]] Stochastic Population Dynamics
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 * style="background-color: #F2F2F2" align="center"|  |Main project page


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Meeting w/ Alan

 * Weekly check-in, following up on last week's meeting.

Goals for meeting

 * Discuss goals for regime shifts seminar tomorrow
 * Discuss my manuscript outline on detection limits for early warning signals
 * Discuss energy model formulation for analytic approximations to Tribolium model.

Meeting Notes

 * Early warning signals - starting in simple models, proof of principle. Discuss three challenges to detection:
 * 1) ergodicity
 * 2) sensitivity
 * 3) complexity
 * Eventually develop robust tools to give confidence estimates (parametric bootstrap) on potential early warning signals. Tool could be implemented as an R package.
 * Follow up with Darren
 * General model testing principles: see Noel Cressie (spatial statistics). Durrett.
 * Structured Populations
 * I'm now using energy tracking to make the system Markov.
 * Implemented in the analytics, need to add to energy accounting to simulation.
 * Suggested further background reading, including some of the work of S.A.S. Kooijman, and
 * 1) Gurney1983 Systematic formulation of tractable single species population models incorporating age structure, Gurney, Nisbet, Lawton 1983,
 * 2) Gurney1980 pmid=7434253

Conferences

 * Also touched on possible conferences to attend this summer. Discussed Conference on Computational and Mathematical Population Dynamics.  Should I go?  Probably.

Targets for Next Week

 * 1) Early warning signals examples of three challenges
 * 2) Add the various warning signal metrics to the regime shifts simulation
 * 3) Add energy accounting to the beetles.


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